Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Looking Towards the Election - "Dirty Tricks?"?

In thinking of the coming months towards the election I come back time and again to seeing two related but different paths of Dirty Tricks that might allow McCain to defeat Obama. Guessing specifics are hard, but thinking of possibilities is fairly easy.

It looks to me like it's likely that Obama will be the heavy favorite to win in November. The economy, The War, McCain's - weak base of support and similar make a sizable win by the Democrats including Obama seem likely.

Such a scenario leads me to see a likelihood of Something Major to shake things up.

Iran - an attack on it - making it into a "Gulf of Tonkin" - type - Necessary Defensive Act - to rally the "patriotism" (sic) - behind McCain seems the most logical path for the "necessary drastic" type of situation.

Some other type of dramatic act that creates a warlike fervor - seems quite possible.

I could imagine some trumped up bombing or stopping of a "major plot" - that somehow was building up Bush and through him McCain - and making Obama look - "too radical" - or otherwise out of the mainstream - in the fall.

Related to this or the second scenario - I could imagine - suddenly in about October the Saudi's dramatically increasing their oil production and the price of gas suddenly dropping at least 40 cents to a dollar a gallon.

Assuming that the election is much closer it seems more likely that there would be multiple smaller things that might help McCain.

"Election irregularities" - in Florida - or some other state with a Republican Governor and legislature - could happen again. Ohio - would need to be more guarded - because the Democrats are in power now there.

Right Wing - attacks on Obama - from the Limbaugh types - will of course be there in any case - accusing him of being Muslim and worse - will be there in any case.

Getting the campaign - against Obama - rather than exposing McCain's weaknesses - will of course be a prime aim of the Republicans and their supporters.

We are fortunate that McCain - lacks a clear support - except as: "not a Black man" and "Not a Democrat" - among so many of his potential supporters.

I hope for the best, but....


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